Montana State
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
230  Trevor Polson SR 32:19
294  Cristian Soratos SR 32:31
309  Seth Garbett SR 32:34
370  Jacob Kirk SR 32:42
683  Zachary Kughn SO 33:20
1,150  Joel Estelle SO 34:04
2,156  Grant Grosvenor JR 35:36
2,901  Marcus Swan FR 38:01
National Rank #62 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #11 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.4%
Most Likely Finish 11th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.1%
Top 10 in Regional 59.5%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Trevor Polson Cristian Soratos Seth Garbett Jacob Kirk Zachary Kughn Joel Estelle Grant Grosvenor Marcus Swan
Montana Open 10/04 1109 33:05 33:13 33:14 33:29 33:55 35:01 36:14
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 819 32:17 31:55 32:38 32:33 33:10 34:07 35:24
Big Sky Championships 11/01 973 32:13 33:05 32:41 33:07 33:34 34:32 36:03 38:26
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 810 32:15 32:33 32:05 32:20 33:14 33:40





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.4% 29.4 695 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 9.9 268 0.1 0.7 5.0 14.2 18.4 21.0 21.8 18.3 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Trevor Polson 3.5% 125.3
Cristian Soratos 0.5% 155.0
Seth Garbett 0.4% 157.0
Jacob Kirk 0.4% 185.0
Zachary Kughn 0.4% 224.0
Joel Estelle 0.4% 247.0
Grant Grosvenor 0.5% 251.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Trevor Polson 40.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4
Cristian Soratos 48.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Seth Garbett 50.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jacob Kirk 54.7
Zachary Kughn 68.8
Joel Estelle 85.5
Grant Grosvenor 110.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 0.1% 75.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5
6 0.7% 31.4% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 6
7 5.0% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9 0.1 7
8 14.2% 0.1% 0.0 14.2 0.0 8
9 18.4% 18.4 9
10 21.0% 21.0 10
11 21.8% 21.8 11
12 18.3% 18.3 12
13 0.3% 0.3 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.6 0.0 0.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Duke 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.7
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0